Global Solar Installation Growth Set to Hit Three-Year High in 2014

Global information company, IHS.Inc has forecasted that global photovoltaic (PV) installations would rise at the fastest pace in three years in 2014. It would exceed 40 gigawatts (GW) and generate installation revenue of more than $86 billion.

IHS has also predicted the annual solar installations to expand at a rate of 18% in 2014, reaching 41 GW. This would mark the end of the solar industry’s two-year slowdown. The company’s earlier prediction for 2013 that installation for this year will be 35 GW was also reaffirmed.

The quarterly IHS PV Demand Market Tracker has predicted the rise of PV installations by 17% in 2014. This represents an increase from 15% in 2012 and 13% in 2013. The year 2014 will bring the highest rate of growth since the 35 % increase in 2011.

Market revenue in 2014 will amount to slightly less than the all-time-high of $89 billion set in 2011.

Senior Research Director for Solar at IHS, Ash Sharma, states that low system prices, opening of new markets in emerging regions and continued growth in countries such as USA, Japan and China will drive PV installations to accelerate in 2014. “As the industry’s recovery accelerates and market revenue returns to near record levels, solar manufacturers will leave behind the turmoil of recent years and enjoy improved business conditions,” he added.

The company also forecasts that despite constant cuts to government incentives in mature PV markets, all major global regions including Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas and Asia will expand their solar installations in 2014.

This prediction is a turning point for Europe which has been adversely hit by a sharp fall in solar installations in 2012 and the continued drop in 2013.

Mr. Sharma observed that although PV installations are stagnating or falling in many established European markets, rapid development is forecasted in emerging countries in the region, such as Turkey, Poland, Ukraine and Russia.

Despite Europe’s return to growth in 2014, its share of global installation is predicted to slide further as it is overtaken by Asia and Americas. IHS predicts Asia’s share to increase to 48% from 29% while Europe’s will fall to 29% next year from 57% in 2012.

IHS predicts that the fourth quarter of 2013 will have the highest number of quarterly installations in two years. It forecasts 9.8 GW worth of PV installations will be completed during the fourth quarter, compared to 8.5 GW in the second and third quarters and to 7.0 GW in the first quarter.

According to IHS, China will be a prime player in the fourth quarter installations, with more than 2 GW of installations projected to be completed by the end of 2013.